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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."